Clayton Christensen: Linux to become the dominant operating system on handhelds
Speaking at the CIO Leadership Conference Harvard Business School Professor Clayton Christensen put Linux in the context of his theory of disruptive technology.
Linux is a disruptive technology with a modular architecture. Windows by contrast has an interdependent architecture. He predicted that we wouldn’t see Linux taking root on desktops in enterprise networks but that it would become the dominant operating system on handheld computers.
"That’s the way Microsoft gets unwound," he said.
At the Conference Christensen reviewed his theory on disruptive innovation, which he popularized in his best-seller The Innovator’s Dilemma.
"In battles for sustaining innovation, incumbents almost always win," said Christensen.
But, he added, every once in a while there is a different kind of innovation. It comes in at the low end of the market. It’s called a disruptive technology because it redefines the trajectory of performance improvement.
The technology is usually simple and affordable and can take root in an undemanding part of the market.
"Almost always, entrants beat incumbents when a disruptive technology comes in and that’s what kills leaders in an industry over and over again."
"In battles for sustaining innovation, incumbents almost always win," said Christensen.
In the battle for sustaining innovation, in contrast to disruptive innvovation, incumbents like Microsoft on the desktop and in the enterprise have the advantage. On the other hand, drawing from what Christensen says, in standalone and "at the edge" applications, such as in handsets, Linux has a shot at being a disruptive force.
And in fact embedded Linux powered 14 percent of smartphones shipped worldwide in Q1 of 2005, up 412% from 3.4% in Q1-04, according to Gartner. Roberta Cozza, a principal analyst at Gartner, says that Linux's dramatic marketshare explosion "was helped by strong sales into the Japanese market."
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